Wellness & supplements D2C
Subscription LTV is fiction until the first jar delivers.
Your model says the subscriber pays back CAC by month three. Reality: 26% of COD orders RTO against under 2% prepaid — on a cart that's 60–80% COD — so a quarter of your 'new subscribers' never existed. The cohort that does start bleeds 8–12% a month, and Meta's health-claim clampdown pushes your spend into broad audiences that buy the flakiest COD demand of all. Margifi runs your acquisition and renewal maths on courier-confirmed delivered revenue instead of the screen number.
- 26% of COD supplement orders RTO vs under 2% prepaid — and COD is 60–80% of the cart.
- A returned jar is destroyed inventory: seal, potency and FSSAI rules force the write-off.
- ~30% of supplement ads get rejected — the broad fallback audiences RTO the hardest.
Typical Indian wellness & supplements benchmark ranges — your real numbers will differ. Category benchmarks — not Margifi results.
Profit truth
The 4× on screen and the loss in the bank are the same campaign
Wellness books 3.2×–5.5× in Ads Manager and it means almost nothing: that's order revenue on a 60–80% COD funnel, and Meta's number diverges 20–40% from money landed once RTO, view-through and cross-device inflation come out. The compliance wall makes it worse — with ~30% of supplement ads rejected for health claims, you retreat into vague creative and broad Advantage+ audiences, which pull in the lowest-intent COD buyers: exactly the cohort that refuses at the door. You see cheap orders; you're buying undeliverable demand. Margifi recomputes every campaign on courier-confirmed delivered revenue so the broad campaigns that book well and land badly stop getting fed.
- Delivered ROAS vs Meta's order ROAS, per campaign — the gap is the tell
- Delivered-order quality per campaign — catch the compliance-workaround broad audiences that buy demand which never delivers
- Contribution per delivered order against break-even on a ₹400–600 cart, where fixed logistics eats 30–50% before COGS
Returns & RTO
An RTO doesn't return your stock. It destroys it.
Apparel restocks a return; a nutraceutical can't. Seal integrity, potency loss on probiotics and omega-3s, and FSSAI / Legal Metrology rules make re-dispatching a returned jar a fineable risk — so every RTO is two-way freight plus a full COGS write-off, and expiry write-offs in this category already run 10–18% before returns pile on. Worse, the ₹180–350 all-in loss on each returned order gets booked as a lump 'logistics' line, never charged to the campaign or SKU that generated the bad order — so the ad set spraying COD into structurally-returning zones keeps getting scaled. Margifi pins every destroyed unit to its ad, SKU and pincode.
- NDR + Out-for-Delivery calling worklist — the in-flight orders a call or WhatsApp can still save, ranked by rescue value and pincode risk Live
- Return loss charged back: reverse freight + the restock cost you set, pinned to the exact ad and SKU
- RTO by zone and pincode heat — from ~20% intra-city to 27–28% in non-metro and special zones, tied to delivered ROAS per zone
COD reliability
Your LTV spreadsheet assumes the doorstep says yes
Supplement businesses are valued on subscription LTV, and the whole curve hangs on order one arriving. It often doesn't: COD dominates the cart and RTOs at 26%, so a quarter of 'acquired subscribers' never start, and involuntary churn takes 8–12% of the rest every month. Meta charges you the same CAC either way — which means your true cost per delivered, repeating customer runs far above the order-CAC you optimise to, and payback quietly never happens. Margifi computes delivered CAC, first-order RTO risk and cohort economics on delivered revenue, and scores COD risk by region and pincode before you ship the jar.
- COD RTO rate by region and pincode, courier-confirmed, + the quantified COD→prepaid upside
- Delivered CAC vs order CAC, with first-order RTO risk per acquisition cohort
- Repeat-cohort margin on delivered revenue — renewal maths that starts from jars that actually arrived
Products & catalogue
A quarter of your catalogue is zombies — with an expiry date
In a typical supplement catalogue, ~15% of SKUs drive most of the contribution while 25–30% are negative-margin zombies you keep restocking and advertising — and in this category the zombies don't just sit there, they expire. A units-sold 'mover' can be a net loser once COD RTO and destroyed returns net out, while short-dated stock slides toward a write-off the Legal Metrology rules won't let you sell through. Margifi ranks every SKU by delivered profit with days-of-cover and dead-stock value, so the zombies surface while there is still shelf life to sell through and the ad budget stops feeding the losers.
- Per-SKU delivered-profit ranking (Scale / Keep / Stop) with RTO, delivery and prepaid share per SKU
- Dead-stock value and days-of-cover per SKU — spot the zombie lines before another restock order goes out
- Return-loss per SKU — the gummies that 'sell' and bounce stop hiding inside blended margin
Where wellness & supplements usually lands
Benchmark ranges for the category — the only real numbers we publish are from our live pilot.
Margifi for wellness & supplements — FAQ
Because Meta counts booked orders on a funnel that's 60–80% COD. Strip the 20–40% reporting inflation (view-through, cross-device) and a 26% COD RTO, and a reported 4× lands nearer 2× on delivered revenue — before write-offs. Margifi computes ROAS on courier-confirmed delivered revenue per campaign, so you scale on money that arrived.
See your real delivered profit, wellness & supplements.
Connect Shopify and Meta and watch order ROAS become delivered ROAS — net of every RTO.